Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Tavares wins 61.0% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Couturier 53.2% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 86.3%
Defensive zone
Couturier 71.3%
Neutral zone
Tavares 74.1%
Result
John Tavares favored at 64.2%
64.2%
35.8%
Tavares
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
3
(11 meetings)
8
3
Tavares
Couturier
Last 10: Tavares 8-2 Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
6
0
Tavares
Couturier
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
1
3
Tavares
Couturier
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Couturier
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
53.4% (758)
+4.6%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
62.9% (70)
-5.9%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
50.7% (227)
+7.2%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Tavares shoots left. Couturier is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (680).
Home / Away
Tavares
Couturier
Home
57.8% (614)
50.7% (517)
Away
57.8% (554)
56.1% (538)
By Period
Tavares
Couturier
P1
58.0%
55.2%
P2
56.9%
53.0%
P3
58.4%
53.3%
OT
57.7%
42.4%
Final 5 min
57.8%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Couturier
52.0%▬
51.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | OT | 02:56 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 16:36 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 15:57 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 15:37 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 00:40 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 18:38 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 01:26 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 15:17 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 16:05 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 11:31 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 08:40 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |