Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (68% H2H, 108 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Couturier 52.6% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 166-146 in 312 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 74.7%
Defensive zone
Couturier 72.0%
Neutral zone
Tavares 54.8%
Result
John Tavares favored at 54.9%
54.9%
45.1%
Tavares
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
166
-
146
(312 meetings)
166
146
Tavares
Couturier
Last 10: Tavares 8-2 Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
73
35
Tavares
Couturier
108 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
25
54
Tavares
Couturier
79 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
68
57
Tavares
Couturier
125 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
52.5% (11,063)
+1.5%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
59.7% (1,280)
-3.2%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
48.5% (1,816)
+2.1%
On power play, Couturier has a +3.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,505).
Tavares shoots left. Couturier is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (8,920).
Home / Away
Tavares
Couturier
Home
56.1% (10,503)
53.4% (7,147)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
51.8% (7,019)
By Period
Tavares
Couturier
P1
55.0%
52.5%
P2
54.1%
52.6%
P3
54.1%
52.9%
OT
55.9%
49.4%
Final 5 min
54.8%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Couturier
52.0%▬
51.0%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | OT | 02:56 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 16:36 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 15:57 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 15:37 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 00:40 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 18:38 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 01:26 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 15:17 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 16:05 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 11:31 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 08:40 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 16:24 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 08:23 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 04:41 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 01:27 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 3 | 15:38 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 2 | 01:42 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 1 | 15:39 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 3 | 09:23 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 11:06 | Neutral | John Tavares |