Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 59.5% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Couturier 55.6% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 51.8%
Defensive zone
Tavares 50.5%
Neutral zone
Tavares 51.8%
Result
John Tavares favored at 51.5%
51.5%
48.5%
Tavares
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Tavares
Couturier
Last 5: Tavares 3-2 Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
0
1
Tavares
Couturier
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
0
1
Tavares
Couturier
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Couturier
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (998)
55.1% (1,008)
+2.6%
Power Play
60.5% (271)
64.1% (142)
-3.6%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (39)
53.3% (45)
+3.1%
On power play, Couturier has a +3.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Tavares is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (818).
Tavares shoots left. Couturier is 55.3% vs left-shot opponents (790).
Home / Away
Tavares
Couturier
Home
59.7% (610)
58.1% (609)
Away
57.0% (698)
53.9% (586)
By Period
Tavares
Couturier
P1
57.2%
55.3%
P2
58.5%
55.8%
P3
59.4%
57.4%
OT
46.7%
45.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
57.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Couturier
52.0%▬
51.0%
56.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 16:24 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 08:23 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 04:41 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 01:27 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 3 | 15:38 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |