Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +20.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 57.1% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 59.8% vs Thompson 41.2% (+20.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 70.6%
Defensive zone
Thompson 62.1%
Neutral zone
Tavares 53.9%
Result
John Tavares favored at 54.1%
54.1%
45.9%
Tavares
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Tavares
Thompson
Last 9: Tavares 4-5 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Thompson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
3
Tavares
Thompson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Thompson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
60.9% (1,043)
40.6% (801)
+20.3%
Power Play
60.4% (278)
44.7% (103)
+15.7%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (21)
31.0% (71)
+16.6%
On even strength, Tavares has a +20.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Tavares is 57.1% vs right-shot opponents (511).
Tavares shoots left. Thompson is 40.1% vs left-shot opponents (724).
Home / Away
Tavares
Thompson
Home
63.5% (684)
43.2% (507)
Away
57.6% (658)
37.2% (468)
By Period
Tavares
Thompson
P1
60.3%
37.7%
P2
60.4%
43.4%
P3
60.1%
39.5%
OT
92.3%
27.3%
Final 5 min
57.4%
39.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
60.6%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
40.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2022 | 2 | 09:11 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 1 | 13:48 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 3 | 01:00 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 2 | 05:53 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 1 | 18:04 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 2, 2022 | 3 | 09:48 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 2, 2022 | 3 | 06:39 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 2, 2022 | 3 | 06:32 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 2, 2022 | 1 | 03:11 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |