Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +13.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Thompson 45.3% (+13.1%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 90.6%
Defensive zone
Tavares 78.5%
Neutral zone
Tavares 88.4%
Result
John Tavares favored at 84.1%
84.1%
15.9%
Tavares
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
3
(11 meetings)
8
3
Tavares
Thompson
Last 10: Tavares 7-3 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Thompson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
5
0
Tavares
Thompson
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
2
3
Tavares
Thompson
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
44.9% (642)
+13.1%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
47.9% (94)
+9.1%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
33.3% (33)
+24.6%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +24.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Tavares is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (402).
Tavares shoots left. Thompson is 42.1% vs left-shot opponents (549).
Home / Away
Tavares
Thompson
Home
57.8% (614)
46.0% (391)
Away
57.8% (554)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Tavares
Thompson
P1
58.0%
48.1%
P2
56.9%
44.9%
P3
58.4%
41.2%
OT
57.7%
42.9%
Final 5 min
57.8%
42.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | OT | 01:11 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 00:12 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 19:49 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 14:51 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 11:39 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 03:33 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 09:15 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 14:52 | Defensive | John Tavares |