Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +12.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 61.0% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Gourde 46.0% (+12.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 94.4%
Defensive zone
Tavares 61.8%
Neutral zone
Tavares 86.0%
Result
John Tavares favored at 84.9%
84.9%
15.1%
Tavares
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Tavares
Gourde
Last 7: Tavares 6-1 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Gourde
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Tavares
Gourde
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
0
Tavares
Gourde
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
47.2% (654)
+10.8%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
45.0% (20)
+12.0%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
32.2% (87)
+25.7%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +25.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Tavares shoots left. Gourde is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (501).
Home / Away
Tavares
Gourde
Home
57.8% (614)
44.1% (322)
Away
57.8% (554)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Tavares
Gourde
P1
58.0%
42.4%
P2
56.9%
49.8%
P3
58.4%
44.3%
OT
57.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.8%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 12:18 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 14:58 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 14:54 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 02:37 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 16:26 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |