Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Gourde 48.2% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 21-8 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 97.5%
Defensive zone
Tavares 78.3%
Neutral zone
Tavares 88.8%
Result
John Tavares favored at 88.9%
88.9%
11.1%
Tavares
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
21
-
8
(29 meetings)
21
8
Tavares
Gourde
Last 10: Tavares 7-3 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
9
1
Tavares
Gourde
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
3
5
Tavares
Gourde
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
9
2
Tavares
Gourde
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
48.4% (4,954)
+5.6%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
57.4% (376)
-0.9%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
39.9% (554)
+10.7%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,505).
Tavares shoots left. Gourde is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,946).
Home / Away
Tavares
Gourde
Home
56.1% (10,503)
49.3% (2,915)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
47.2% (2,969)
By Period
Tavares
Gourde
P1
55.0%
49.9%
P2
54.1%
47.4%
P3
54.1%
47.5%
OT
55.9%
37.0%
Final 5 min
54.8%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 12:18 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 14:58 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 14:54 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 02:37 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 16:26 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 3 | 06:26 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 1 | 18:54 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 1 | 15:07 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 07:59 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 07:44 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 09:48 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 00:57 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 3 | 15:09 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 3 | 12:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 2 | 17:25 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 2 | 05:21 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 1 | 12:14 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 1 | 09:55 | Neutral | John Tavares |