Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 61.6% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Gourde 49.7% (+8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 91.0%
Defensive zone
Tavares 66.1%
Neutral zone
Tavares 85.7%
Result
John Tavares favored at 80.8%
80.8%
19.2%
Tavares
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
0
(4 meetings)
4
0
Tavares
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Gourde
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Gourde
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (914)
49.1% (847)
+8.4%
Power Play
60.5% (309)
79.5% (44)
-19.0%
Penalty Kill
59.1% (22)
39.5% (81)
+19.6%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +19.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Tavares is 61.6% vs left-shot opponents (774).
Tavares shoots left. Gourde is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (651).
Home / Away
Tavares
Gourde
Home
61.0% (661)
50.1% (491)
Away
55.3% (584)
49.3% (481)
By Period
Tavares
Gourde
P1
58.6%
54.7%
P2
57.8%
45.0%
P3
58.4%
49.4%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
63.4%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2023 | 3 | 15:09 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 3 | 12:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 2 | 17:25 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 2 | 05:21 | Defensive | John Tavares |