Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +11.5% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 61.3% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 58.7% vs Gourde 48.0% (+11.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 51.7%
Defensive zone
Gourde 79.0%
Neutral zone
Gourde 67.8%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 68.5%
31.5%
68.5%
Tavares
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Tavares
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Gourde
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
2
Tavares
Gourde
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Tavares
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (1,035)
48.0% (914)
+11.2%
Power Play
60.0% (310)
54.2% (48)
+5.8%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
43.9% (123)
-1.0%
On even strength, Tavares has a +11.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Tavares is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Tavares shoots left. Gourde is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (764).
Home / Away
Tavares
Gourde
Home
57.5% (668)
50.2% (512)
Away
61.1% (684)
45.7% (573)
By Period
Tavares
Gourde
P1
58.0%
50.0%
P2
60.1%
45.3%
P3
61.0%
48.6%
OT
27.8%
20.0%
Final 5 min
60.7%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 07:59 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 07:44 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 09:48 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 00:57 | Offensive | John Tavares |