John Tavares vs Zemgus Girgensons
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +14.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Girgensons on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Tavares wins 61.0% vs left-shot opponents — Girgensons shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Girgensons 45.8% (+14.3%)
H2H factor
Girgensons leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 82.5%
Defensive zone
Girgensons 78.7%
Neutral zone
Tavares 51.8%
Result
Zemgus Girgensons favored at 55.8%
44.2%
55.8%
Tavares
Girgensons
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Tavares
Girgensons
Last 10: Tavares 4-6 Girgensons
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Girgensons
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Girgensons
1
5
Tavares
Girgensons
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Girgensons
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Girgensons
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
43.2% (146)
+14.8%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
50.0% (2)
+7.0%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
44.8% (29)
+13.1%
On even strength, Tavares has a +14.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Girgensons shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Tavares shoots left. Girgensons is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (119).
Home / Away
Tavares
Girgensons
Home
57.8% (614)
40.3% (72)
Away
57.8% (554)
45.7% (105)
By Period
Tavares
Girgensons
P1
58.0%
43.8%
P2
56.9%
44.6%
P3
58.4%
42.5%
Final 5 min
57.8%
34.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Girgensons
58.0%▲
44.0%
43.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 12:19 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 07:11 | Defensive | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 05:50 | Defensive | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 16:30 | Neutral | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 07:20 | Offensive | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 19:12 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 07:24 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 07:12 | Defensive | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 06:43 | Defensive | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 06:38 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 06:28 | Defensive | Zemgus Girgensons |