Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Drouin 49.5% vs Sturm 53.6% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Drouin 72.0%
Defensive zone
Sturm 86.2%
Neutral zone
Sturm 66.4%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 60.2%
39.8%
60.2%
Drouin
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Drouin
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Drouin
1
0
Drouin
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Drouin
Sturm
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Drouin
1
0
Drouin
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Drouin
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (181)
54.6% (271)
-7.1%
On even strength, Sturm has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Drouin is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (136).
Drouin shoots left. Sturm is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Drouin
Sturm
Home
49.5% (97)
53.0% (168)
Away
49.2% (128)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Drouin
Sturm
P1
52.1%
58.2%
P2
51.5%
53.2%
P3
45.0%
52.3%
OT
50.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
50.0%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Drouin
44.0%▼
49.5%
49.3%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 13:25 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 04:56 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 01:40 | Neutral | Jonathan Drouin |