Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +12.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Drouin on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Drouin wins 44.1% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Drouin 44.5% vs Sturm 56.1% (-12.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Drouin 63.0%
Defensive zone
Sturm 95.2%
Neutral zone
Sturm 87.3%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 62.0%
38.0%
62.0%
Drouin
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Drouin
Sturm
Last 9: Drouin 6-3 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Drouin
4
1
Drouin
Sturm
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
Drouin
Sturm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Drouin
1
0
Drouin
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Drouin
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
43.5% (1,824)
57.1% (2,719)
-13.6%
Power Play
48.3% (387)
61.3% (62)
-13.0%
Penalty Kill
39.1% (23)
51.0% (498)
-11.9%
On even strength, Sturm has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Drouin is 44.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,385).
Drouin shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Home / Away
Drouin
Sturm
Home
44.0% (1,041)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
44.5% (1,193)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Drouin
Sturm
P1
45.9%
56.5%
P2
42.0%
54.9%
P3
45.0%
57.4%
OT
47.1%
60.6%
Final 5 min
42.9%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Drouin
44.0%▼
49.5%
44.3%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 13:25 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 04:56 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 01:40 | Neutral | Jonathan Drouin |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 2 | 05:27 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 2 | 05:21 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 2 | 02:03 | Defensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 2 | 01:42 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 1 | 05:11 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 1 | 02:50 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |