Scouting Report
Jonathan Drouin holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Drouin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Drouin wins 45.2% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Drouin 45.6% vs Cates 40.4% (+5.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Drouin 90.5%
Defensive zone
Drouin 62.0%
Neutral zone
Drouin 66.5%
Result
Jonathan Drouin favored at 74.3%
74.3%
25.7%
Drouin
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Drouin
Cates
Last 8: Drouin 7-1 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Drouin
3
0
Drouin
Cates
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Drouin
2
0
Drouin
Cates
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Drouin
2
1
Drouin
Cates
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Drouin
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
45.1% (355)
40.4% (841)
+4.7%
Power Play
40.9% (22)
42.4% (66)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (3)
32.7% (147)
-32.7%
On penalty kill, Cates has a +32.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Drouin is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (230).
Drouin shoots left. Cates is 39.3% vs left-shot opponents (749).
Home / Away
Drouin
Cates
Home
37.5% (160)
38.2% (566)
Away
49.5% (220)
41.0% (488)
By Period
Drouin
Cates
P1
40.3%
40.5%
P2
43.3%
42.4%
P3
49.6%
35.3%
OT
50.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
37.1%
36.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Drouin
44.0%▼
49.5%
44.5%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
39.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 19:37 | Neutral | Jonathan Drouin |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 18:14 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 04:07 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 17:39 | Defensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 04:25 | Neutral | Jonathan Drouin |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 1 | 09:20 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Feb 24, 2023 | 2 | 10:47 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Feb 24, 2023 | 1 | 12:44 | Defensive | Jonathan Drouin |