Scouting Report
Jonathan Drouin holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Drouin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Drouin wins 44.1% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Drouin 44.5% vs Cates 43.2% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Drouin leads 10-2 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Drouin 85.2%
Defensive zone
Cates 60.9%
Neutral zone
Drouin 50.5%
Result
Jonathan Drouin favored at 59.2%
59.2%
40.8%
Drouin
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
2
(12 meetings)
10
2
Drouin
Cates
Last 10: Drouin 8-2 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Drouin
4
0
Drouin
Cates
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Drouin
3
0
Drouin
Cates
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Drouin
3
2
Drouin
Cates
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Drouin
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
43.5% (1,824)
44.1% (2,742)
-0.6%
Power Play
48.3% (387)
43.0% (242)
+5.3%
Penalty Kill
39.1% (23)
34.9% (373)
+4.2%
On power play, Drouin has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Drouin is 44.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,385).
Drouin shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,284).
Home / Away
Drouin
Cates
Home
44.0% (1,041)
43.8% (1,663)
Away
44.5% (1,193)
42.1% (1,694)
By Period
Drouin
Cates
P1
45.9%
44.5%
P2
42.0%
43.5%
P3
45.0%
41.2%
OT
47.1%
29.4%
Final 5 min
42.9%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Drouin
44.0%▼
49.5%
44.3%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 19:07 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 18:48 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 15:50 | Defensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 17:21 | Neutral | Jonathan Drouin |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 19:37 | Neutral | Jonathan Drouin |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 18:14 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 04:07 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 17:39 | Defensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 04:25 | Neutral | Jonathan Drouin |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 1 | 09:20 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Feb 24, 2023 | 2 | 10:47 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Feb 24, 2023 | 1 | 12:44 | Defensive | Jonathan Drouin |