Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.9% vs Toews 56.3% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Toews leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Toews 61.0%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 70.1%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 55.6%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 51.8%
51.8%
48.2%
Pavelski
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
8
(11 meetings)
3
8
Pavelski
Toews
Last 10: Pavelski 3-7 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
5
Pavelski
Toews
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Pavelski
Toews
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
0
1
Pavelski
Toews
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (682)
55.6% (1,125)
-2.2%
Power Play
63.7% (168)
59.3% (312)
+4.4%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (160)
57.4% (204)
-9.3%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Pavelski is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (790).
Pavelski shoots right. Toews is 58.0% vs right-shot opponents (459).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Toews
Home
59.0% (527)
59.8% (858)
Away
49.3% (493)
53.3% (795)
By Period
Pavelski
Toews
P1
50.8%
58.7%
P2
58.9%
55.1%
P3
53.6%
56.5%
OT
42.9%
54.8%
Final 5 min
54.1%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.3%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
56.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2011 | 2 | 19:47 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 14, 2011 | 2 | 16:37 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 14, 2011 | 2 | 05:16 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 14, 2011 | 2 | 02:34 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 14, 2011 | 2 | 02:09 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 14, 2011 | 1 | 02:07 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 11, 2010 | 1 | 13:59 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 24, 2010 | 3 | 18:06 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 24, 2010 | 2 | 19:50 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 24, 2010 | 2 | 12:55 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 24, 2010 | 2 | 03:08 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |