Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.0% vs 56.5%). Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 55.5% vs Toews 56.2% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Toews leads 11-2 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Toews 62.4%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 72.7%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 53.5%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 50.6%
50.6%
49.4%
Pavelski
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
11
(13 meetings)
2
11
Pavelski
Toews
Last 10: Pavelski 2-8 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
5
Pavelski
Toews
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
2
Pavelski
Toews
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
0
4
Pavelski
Toews
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
55.0% (785)
54.9% (1,229)
+0.1%
Power Play
62.7% (201)
62.7% (354)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (161)
54.3% (92)
-2.1%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Pavelski is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (826).
Pavelski shoots right. Toews is 59.8% vs right-shot opponents (625).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Toews
Home
58.1% (580)
57.6% (838)
Away
53.8% (567)
55.4% (837)
By Period
Pavelski
Toews
P1
53.4%
58.0%
P2
58.6%
54.4%
P3
56.4%
56.7%
OT
36.8%
64.5%
Final 5 min
57.4%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
56.0%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2015 | 3 | 13:27 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 14, 2015 | 2 | 07:35 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 14, 2015 | 1 | 19:51 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 14, 2015 | 1 | 09:08 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 31, 2015 | 3 | 19:51 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 31, 2015 | 3 | 12:44 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 31, 2015 | 2 | 00:18 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 9, 2014 | 2 | 17:57 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 9, 2014 | 2 | 04:51 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 9, 2014 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 9, 2014 | 1 | 17:41 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 9, 2014 | 1 | 15:59 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 9, 2014 | 1 | 13:15 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |