Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +21.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Toews wins 71.8% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.3% vs Barzal 41.4% (+21.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 95.2%
Defensive zone
Toews 93.6%
Neutral zone
Toews 95.5%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 94.2%
94.2%
5.8%
Toews
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Toews
Barzal
Last 6: Toews 5-1 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Barzal
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
3
1
Toews
Barzal
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Barzal
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
62.5% (696)
40.4% (463)
+22.1%
Power Play
59.6% (141)
34.2% (38)
+25.4%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
28.6% (7)
+18.3%
On power play, Toews has a +25.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Toews is 71.8% vs right-shot opponents (291).
Toews shoots left. Barzal is 38.9% vs left-shot opponents (393).
Home / Away
Toews
Barzal
Home
60.9% (435)
38.1% (244)
Away
62.0% (434)
41.3% (264)
By Period
Toews
Barzal
P1
59.8%
46.6%
P2
65.7%
35.7%
P3
58.8%
37.7%
OT
80.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
58.3%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
61.4%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
39.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 01:09 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 12:38 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 03:31 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 03:22 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 00:27 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 14:29 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |