Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 56.2% vs Duchene 52.0% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 70.5%
Defensive zone
Duchene 90.1%
Neutral zone
Duchene 80.5%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 80.3%
19.7%
80.3%
Toews
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
Toews
Duchene
Last 8: Toews 1-7 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
2
Toews
Duchene
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
3
Toews
Duchene
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
2
Toews
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (1,229)
52.6% (1,081)
+2.3%
Power Play
62.7% (354)
49.6% (119)
+13.1%
Penalty Kill
54.3% (92)
41.2% (17)
+13.1%
On power play, Toews has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Toews is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,050).
Toews shoots left. Duchene is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (744).
Home / Away
Toews
Duchene
Home
57.6% (838)
54.9% (625)
Away
55.4% (837)
49.3% (592)
By Period
Toews
Duchene
P1
58.0%
52.7%
P2
54.4%
54.1%
P3
56.7%
49.5%
OT
64.5%
57.1%
Final 5 min
53.3%
46.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
56.5%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2015 | 3 | 18:17 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 6, 2015 | 3 | 06:20 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 6, 2015 | 2 | 13:28 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 6, 2015 | 1 | 09:22 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 6, 2015 | 1 | 07:51 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 6, 2015 | 1 | 00:13 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 27, 2014 | 1 | 06:56 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 26, 2014 | 3 | 16:55 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |