Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 45 meetings). Toews wins 56.7% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 57.9% vs Duchene 54.1% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 87-81 in 168 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 60.9%
Defensive zone
Duchene 61.9%
Neutral zone
Duchene 61.6%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 61.4%
38.6%
61.4%
Toews
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
81
-
87
(168 meetings)
81
87
Toews
Duchene
Last 10: Toews 2-8 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
30
31
Toews
Duchene
61 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
18
27
Toews
Duchene
45 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
33
29
Toews
Duchene
62 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
57.2% (13,047)
53.9% (10,396)
+3.3%
Power Play
63.3% (3,252)
56.9% (1,665)
+6.4%
Penalty Kill
53.6% (1,810)
49.1% (468)
+4.5%
On power play, Toews has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Toews is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (11,653).
Toews shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Home / Away
Toews
Duchene
Home
59.7% (9,192)
55.6% (6,411)
Away
56.1% (8,948)
52.7% (6,142)
By Period
Toews
Duchene
P1
58.6%
54.5%
P2
57.8%
54.5%
P3
57.3%
53.4%
OT
58.9%
56.3%
Final 5 min
58.2%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
57.9%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 15:53 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 15:35 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 09:03 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 04:12 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 11:09 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 07:47 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 10:16 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 06:19 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 2 | 04:06 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 1 | 18:54 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 21, 2020 | OT | 01:23 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 21, 2020 | 2 | 13:30 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 21, 2020 | 1 | 14:42 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 9, 2020 | 2 | 15:34 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 9, 2020 | 1 | 12:31 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 9, 2020 | 1 | 12:16 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 3 | 16:32 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 2 | 03:52 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |