Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.3% vs Duchene 51.6% (+9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 80.2%
Defensive zone
Duchene 84.6%
Neutral zone
Duchene 86.2%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 83.4%
16.6%
83.4%
Toews
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
Toews
Duchene
Last 8: Toews 1-7 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
3
Toews
Duchene
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
3
Toews
Duchene
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Toews
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
62.5% (696)
51.2% (324)
+11.3%
Power Play
59.6% (141)
60.4% (53)
-0.8%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
16.7% (6)
+30.2%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +30.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Toews is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (577).
Toews shoots left. Duchene is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (242).
Home / Away
Toews
Duchene
Home
60.9% (435)
51.6% (182)
Away
62.0% (434)
52.2% (201)
By Period
Toews
Duchene
P1
59.8%
49.6%
P2
65.7%
56.2%
P3
58.8%
48.6%
OT
80.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
58.3%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
61.4%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 15:53 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 15:35 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 09:03 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 04:12 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 11:09 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 07:47 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 10:16 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 06:19 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |