Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). Toews wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 54.6% vs Duchene 61.5% (-7.7%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 27-13 in 40 meetings
Offensive zone
Toews 65.2%
Defensive zone
Toews 83.4%
Neutral zone
Toews 66.5%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 72.7%
72.7%
27.3%
Toews
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
27
(40 meetings)
13
27
Toews
Duchene
Last 10: Toews 2-8 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
7
8
Toews
Duchene
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
5
11
Toews
Duchene
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
8
Toews
Duchene
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
54.8% (1,153)
62.2% (802)
-7.4%
Power Play
58.8% (233)
67.3% (153)
-8.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (166)
59.4% (143)
-9.4%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Toews is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (988).
Toews shoots left. Duchene is 60.9% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
Toews
Duchene
Home
58.7% (784)
66.5% (555)
Away
51.0% (768)
58.6% (543)
By Period
Toews
Duchene
P1
54.0%
63.2%
P2
57.4%
59.6%
P3
52.6%
65.0%
OT
64.7%
71.4%
Final 5 min
55.9%
65.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
54.9%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
62.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2017 | 2 | 11:36 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Apr 4, 2017 | 1 | 14:27 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 4, 2017 | 1 | 10:03 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 4, 2017 | 1 | 06:27 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 19, 2017 | 3 | 19:32 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 19, 2017 | 3 | 14:50 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 19, 2017 | 1 | 08:21 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 19, 2017 | 1 | 08:14 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 19, 2017 | 1 | 06:07 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 17, 2017 | 3 | 15:58 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 17, 2017 | 3 | 12:39 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 17, 2017 | 2 | 15:34 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 17, 2017 | 2 | 12:02 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 17, 2017 | 2 | 09:56 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 17, 2017 | 2 | 09:51 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 17, 2017 | 1 | 19:13 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 17, 2017 | 1 | 15:41 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 17, 2017 | 1 | 12:50 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 17, 2017 | 1 | 06:20 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 17, 2017 | 1 | 03:32 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |