Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 57.4% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 57.5% vs Duchene 52.8% (+5.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 85.8%
Defensive zone
Toews 80.2%
Neutral zone
Toews 79.6%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 82.2%
82.2%
17.8%
Toews
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Toews
Duchene
Last 8: Toews 6-2 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
3
0
Toews
Duchene
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
2
1
Toews
Duchene
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Toews
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
58.4% (1,115)
52.6% (1,112)
+5.8%
Power Play
61.3% (256)
56.0% (193)
+5.3%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (182)
49.0% (49)
+1.5%
On even strength, Toews has a +5.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Toews is 57.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,035).
Toews shoots left. Duchene is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (873).
Home / Away
Toews
Duchene
Home
59.5% (783)
55.7% (652)
Away
56.4% (770)
50.4% (702)
By Period
Toews
Duchene
P1
58.4%
51.4%
P2
59.4%
53.9%
P3
55.9%
53.3%
OT
61.1%
55.6%
Final 5 min
58.9%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
58.0%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2018 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 21, 2018 | 2 | 09:32 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 9, 2018 | 3 | 06:24 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 9, 2018 | 1 | 12:28 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 28, 2017 | 3 | 07:51 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 28, 2017 | 3 | 01:52 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 28, 2017 | 2 | 10:12 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 28, 2017 | 1 | 16:02 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |