Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall. Toews wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.3% vs Foligno 49.8% (+11.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 69.9%
Defensive zone
Foligno 71.7%
Neutral zone
Foligno 51.0%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 56.1%
43.9%
56.1%
Toews
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Toews
Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Foligno
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
2
Toews
Foligno
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Foligno
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
62.5% (696)
49.0% (261)
+13.5%
Power Play
59.6% (141)
57.1% (42)
+2.5%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
47.1% (51)
-0.2%
On even strength, Toews has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Toews is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (577).
Toews shoots left. Foligno is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (192).
Home / Away
Toews
Foligno
Home
60.9% (435)
48.9% (178)
Away
62.0% (434)
50.6% (176)
By Period
Toews
Foligno
P1
59.8%
40.4%
P2
65.7%
55.8%
P3
58.8%
51.2%
OT
80.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
58.3%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
61.4%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 12:12 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 14:49 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 03:11 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 18:31 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |