Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.3% vs 56.6%). Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 56.0% vs Foligno 54.6% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Foligno 56.9%
Defensive zone
Toews 73.9%
Neutral zone
Toews 68.0%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 60.1%
60.1%
39.9%
Toews
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Toews
Foligno
Last 8: Toews 5-3 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
3
0
Toews
Foligno
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
2
Toews
Foligno
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
2
1
Toews
Foligno
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (1,310)
63.3% (120)
-6.8%
Power Play
59.7% (325)
49.5% (95)
+10.2%
Penalty Kill
51.0% (245)
50.0% (20)
+1.0%
On power play, Toews has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Toews is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,218).
Toews shoots left. Foligno is 61.1% vs left-shot opponents (162).
Home / Away
Toews
Foligno
Home
56.6% (927)
57.5% (120)
Away
56.0% (953)
55.7% (115)
By Period
Toews
Foligno
P1
56.3%
52.1%
P2
55.8%
61.1%
P3
57.3%
55.6%
OT
48.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.3%
60.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
56.3%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
56.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2019 | 3 | 11:04 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 3 | 10:57 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 3 | 00:12 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 2 | 19:04 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 1 | 19:22 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 1 | 15:03 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 1 | 13:33 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 1 | 11:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |