Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 71.8% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.3% vs Roy 51.9% (+9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 95.2%
Defensive zone
Roy 50.7%
Neutral zone
Toews 89.0%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 65.2%
65.2%
34.8%
Toews
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Toews
Roy
Last 5: Toews 4-1 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
2
1
Toews
Roy
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
2
0
Toews
Roy
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
62.5% (696)
51.9% (547)
+10.6%
Power Play
59.6% (141)
54.1% (37)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
53.3% (92)
-6.4%
On even strength, Toews has a +10.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Toews is 71.8% vs right-shot opponents (291).
Toews shoots left. Roy is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (464).
Home / Away
Toews
Roy
Home
60.9% (435)
54.0% (328)
Away
62.0% (434)
50.6% (348)
By Period
Toews
Roy
P1
59.8%
53.5%
P2
65.7%
51.6%
P3
58.8%
51.6%
Final 5 min
58.3%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
61.4%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 03:21 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 11:59 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 19:34 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 11:04 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 17:38 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |