Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Toews wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 57.9% vs Roy 48.4% (+9.5%)
H2H factor
Toews leads 14-8 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Toews 96.6%
Defensive zone
Toews 72.8%
Neutral zone
Toews 90.5%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 86.8%
86.8%
13.2%
Toews
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
8
(22 meetings)
14
8
Toews
Roy
Last 10: Toews 8-2 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
5
2
Toews
Roy
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
4
3
Toews
Roy
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
5
3
Toews
Roy
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
57.2% (13,047)
48.7% (3,719)
+8.5%
Power Play
63.3% (3,252)
49.5% (283)
+13.8%
Penalty Kill
53.6% (1,810)
45.5% (477)
+8.1%
On power play, Toews has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Toews is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (6,486).
Toews shoots left. Roy is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (3,288).
Home / Away
Toews
Roy
Home
59.7% (9,192)
49.5% (2,221)
Away
56.1% (8,948)
47.3% (2,258)
By Period
Toews
Roy
P1
58.6%
50.8%
P2
57.8%
46.3%
P3
57.3%
48.1%
OT
58.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
58.2%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
57.9%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 03:21 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 11:59 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 19:34 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 11:04 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 17:38 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 03:09 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 1 | 19:03 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 1 | 16:47 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 1 | 04:50 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 1 | 05:36 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Apr 27, 2022 | 2 | 05:03 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 3 | 03:16 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 3 | 01:24 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 2 | 17:17 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 2 | 10:31 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 2 | 00:35 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 1 | 09:58 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 3 | 12:51 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 13, 2019 | 3 | 06:11 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |