Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 63.5% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 58.4% vs Roy 48.9% (+10.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 57.9%
Defensive zone
Roy 56.7%
Neutral zone
Roy 56.6%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 57.1%
42.9%
57.1%
Toews
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Toews
Roy
Last 8: Toews 4-4 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
2
1
Toews
Roy
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Toews
Roy
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
1
2
Toews
Roy
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (901)
49.5% (746)
+8.5%
Power Play
69.5% (226)
50.7% (75)
+18.8%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (209)
42.7% (110)
+9.0%
On power play, Toews has a +18.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Toews is 63.5% vs right-shot opponents (515).
Toews shoots left. Roy is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (689).
Home / Away
Toews
Roy
Home
59.3% (637)
47.7% (491)
Away
58.7% (699)
50.0% (440)
By Period
Toews
Roy
P1
61.5%
51.1%
P2
55.2%
44.6%
P3
60.0%
50.9%
OT
70.6%
42.9%
Final 5 min
57.9%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
59.0%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2022 | 2 | 05:03 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 3 | 03:16 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 3 | 01:24 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 2 | 17:17 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 2 | 10:31 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 2 | 00:35 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 1 | 09:58 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 3 | 12:51 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |