Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +15.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 66.7% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 61.9% vs Roy 48.3% (+15.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 96.7%
Defensive zone
Toews 69.9%
Neutral zone
Toews 90.0%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 90.0%
90.0%
10.0%
Toews
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Toews
Roy
Last 6: Toews 5-1 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
3
0
Toews
Roy
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
1
Toews
Roy
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
2
0
Toews
Roy
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
61.1% (650)
48.3% (633)
+12.8%
Power Play
71.9% (192)
52.1% (48)
+19.8%
Penalty Kill
59.6% (99)
43.7% (87)
+15.9%
On power play, Toews has a +19.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Toews is 66.7% vs right-shot opponents (384).
Toews shoots left. Roy is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (550).
Home / Away
Toews
Roy
Home
64.8% (560)
50.8% (376)
Away
60.6% (381)
45.4% (392)
By Period
Toews
Roy
P1
62.3%
53.8%
P2
63.9%
43.5%
P3
62.8%
46.4%
OT
70.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
60.9%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
63.1%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 03:09 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 1 | 19:03 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 1 | 16:47 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 1 | 04:50 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 1 | 05:36 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |