Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on defensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings). Toews wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 56.8% vs O'Reilly 51.4% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
Toews leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Toews 73.7%
Defensive zone
Toews 53.4%
Neutral zone
Toews 57.9%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 60.1%
60.1%
39.9%
Toews
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
6
(14 meetings)
8
6
Toews
O'Reilly
Last 10: Toews 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Toews
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
4
3
Toews
O'Reilly
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
2
1
Toews
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (1,143)
51.5% (194)
+4.4%
Power Play
65.1% (304)
52.3% (107)
+12.8%
Penalty Kill
48.5% (97)
51.4% (70)
-2.9%
On power play, Toews has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Toews is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (919).
Toews shoots left. O'Reilly is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (247).
Home / Away
Toews
O'Reilly
Home
61.7% (810)
50.3% (185)
Away
52.3% (734)
53.2% (186)
By Period
Toews
O'Reilly
P1
56.0%
51.0%
P2
56.9%
48.9%
P3
59.3%
53.3%
OT
50.0%
68.8%
Final 5 min
61.2%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
57.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2014 | 3 | 09:28 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 4, 2014 | 2 | 07:37 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 14, 2014 | 3 | 17:37 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 14, 2014 | 3 | 10:54 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 14, 2014 | 3 | 05:00 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 14, 2014 | 2 | 19:25 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 14, 2014 | 1 | 03:18 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 27, 2013 | 2 | 03:22 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 27, 2013 | 2 | 00:14 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 27, 2013 | 2 | 00:12 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 27, 2013 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 27, 2013 | 1 | 05:49 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 19, 2013 | 2 | 15:06 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 19, 2013 | 1 | 04:21 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |