Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 58.4% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 55.3%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 57.5%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 57.4%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 56.8%
43.2%
56.8%
Toews
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Toews
O'Reilly
Last 9: Toews 4-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
2
1
Toews
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
3
Toews
O'Reilly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Toews
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (901)
56.6% (1,064)
+1.4%
Power Play
69.5% (226)
60.4% (260)
+9.1%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (209)
54.0% (261)
-2.3%
On power play, Toews has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Toews is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (821).
Toews shoots left. O'Reilly is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
Home / Away
Toews
O'Reilly
Home
59.3% (637)
54.9% (801)
Away
58.7% (699)
58.7% (784)
By Period
Toews
O'Reilly
P1
61.5%
58.0%
P2
55.2%
56.7%
P3
60.0%
55.4%
OT
70.6%
64.7%
Final 5 min
57.9%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
59.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2021 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 3 | 14:29 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 3 | 01:37 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 2 | 13:40 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 2 | 10:25 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 1 | 14:54 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 1 | 11:29 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 1 | 11:19 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 1 | 05:03 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |