Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 60.7% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 61.9% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (+7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 62.7%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 73.4%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 69.0%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 67.7%
32.3%
67.7%
Toews
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Toews
O'Reilly
Last 9: Toews 3-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
Toews
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Toews
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
2
0
Toews
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
61.1% (650)
56.1% (690)
+5.0%
Power Play
71.9% (192)
64.6% (96)
+7.3%
Penalty Kill
59.6% (99)
45.9% (109)
+13.7%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Toews is 60.7% vs left-shot opponents (557).
Toews shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Home / Away
Toews
O'Reilly
Home
64.8% (560)
58.3% (408)
Away
60.6% (381)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Toews
O'Reilly
P1
62.3%
57.7%
P2
63.9%
54.8%
P3
62.8%
55.2%
OT
70.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
60.9%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
63.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2022 | 1 | 18:53 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 1 | 12:38 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 1 | 07:53 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2022 | 3 | 16:40 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2022 | 3 | 10:30 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 16, 2022 | 2 | 19:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2022 | 2 | 19:29 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 16, 2022 | 1 | 19:52 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |