Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +12.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 63.5% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 58.4% vs Gagner 47.5% (+12.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 93.1%
Defensive zone
Toews 77.5%
Neutral zone
Toews 84.3%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 88.2%
88.2%
11.8%
Toews
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Toews
Gagner
Last 5: Toews 4-1 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
3
0
Toews
Gagner
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
0
1
Toews
Gagner
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Gagner
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (901)
51.3% (158)
+6.7%
Power Play
69.5% (226)
66.7% (36)
+2.8%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (209)
33.6% (110)
+18.1%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +18.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Toews is 63.5% vs right-shot opponents (515).
Toews shoots left. Gagner is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (240).
Home / Away
Toews
Gagner
Home
59.3% (637)
53.2% (154)
Away
58.7% (699)
40.0% (150)
By Period
Toews
Gagner
P1
61.5%
35.6%
P2
55.2%
52.7%
P3
60.0%
51.9%
OT
70.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.9%
34.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
59.0%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
46.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2021 | 3 | 12:38 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 24, 2021 | 3 | 11:18 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Oct 24, 2021 | 3 | 11:04 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 24, 2021 | 3 | 10:45 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 24, 2021 | 1 | 14:59 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |