Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 71.8% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.2% vs Stamkos 54.4% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 68.7%
Defensive zone
Toews 86.2%
Neutral zone
Toews 82.8%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 76.9%
76.9%
23.1%
Toews
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Toews
Stamkos
Last 6: Toews 4-2 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
2
1
Toews
Stamkos
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Toews
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
62.4% (692)
55.8% (339)
+6.6%
Power Play
59.3% (135)
53.3% (90)
+6.0%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
62.5% (8)
-15.6%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Toews is 71.8% vs right-shot opponents (284).
Toews shoots left. Stamkos is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Home / Away
Toews
Stamkos
Home
60.9% (435)
53.4% (208)
Away
61.8% (424)
57.2% (229)
By Period
Toews
Stamkos
P1
60.2%
55.3%
P2
65.7%
52.5%
P3
58.2%
58.9%
OT
75.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
58.3%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
62.0%▬
61.5%
61.4%
Stamkos
56.0%▲
54.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 08:19 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 15:01 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 00:47 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 07:20 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 07:11 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 08:28 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |