Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 71.8% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.3% vs Stamkos 54.6% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 67.2%
Defensive zone
Toews 85.4%
Neutral zone
Toews 81.8%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 75.7%
75.7%
24.3%
Toews
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Toews
Stamkos
Last 6: Toews 4-2 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
2
1
Toews
Stamkos
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Toews
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
62.5% (696)
56.1% (342)
+6.4%
Power Play
59.6% (141)
53.3% (92)
+6.3%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
62.5% (8)
-15.6%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Toews is 71.8% vs right-shot opponents (291).
Toews shoots left. Stamkos is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Home / Away
Toews
Stamkos
Home
60.9% (435)
53.4% (208)
Away
62.0% (434)
57.7% (234)
By Period
Toews
Stamkos
P1
59.8%
55.6%
P2
65.7%
52.8%
P3
58.8%
59.1%
OT
80.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
58.3%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
61.4%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 08:19 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 15:01 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 00:47 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 07:20 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 07:11 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 08:28 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |