Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 63.5% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 58.4% vs Stamkos 50.9% (+8.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 51.7%
Defensive zone
Toews 73.0%
Neutral zone
Toews 64.8%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 67.1%
67.1%
32.9%
Toews
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Toews
Stamkos
Last 5: Toews 3-2 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Toews
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
3
0
Toews
Stamkos
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Toews
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (901)
49.3% (789)
+8.7%
Power Play
69.5% (226)
56.9% (181)
+12.6%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (209)
54.1% (98)
-2.4%
On power play, Toews has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Toews is 63.5% vs right-shot opponents (515).
Toews shoots left. Stamkos is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (798).
Home / Away
Toews
Stamkos
Home
59.3% (637)
52.0% (512)
Away
58.7% (699)
50.2% (556)
By Period
Toews
Stamkos
P1
61.5%
42.1%
P2
55.2%
56.4%
P3
60.0%
53.7%
OT
70.6%
62.5%
Final 5 min
57.9%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
59.0%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2022 | 1 | 06:00 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Apr 1, 2022 | 1 | 01:46 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Apr 1, 2022 | 1 | 01:19 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 3 | 17:49 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 6, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |