Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Toews wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.3% vs Hertl 57.2% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 67.8%
Defensive zone
Hertl 52.9%
Neutral zone
Hertl 61.5%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 63.6%
36.4%
63.6%
Toews
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Toews
Hertl
Last 6: Toews 2-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Toews
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Toews
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
62.5% (696)
58.1% (823)
+4.4%
Power Play
59.6% (141)
56.2% (265)
+3.4%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
62.9% (35)
-16.0%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Toews is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (577).
Toews shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Toews
Hertl
Home
60.9% (435)
59.7% (561)
Away
62.0% (434)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Toews
Hertl
P1
59.8%
51.6%
P2
65.7%
63.8%
P3
58.8%
58.6%
OT
80.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
58.3%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
61.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 18:39 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 10:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 12:38 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |