Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 60.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 61.9% vs Hertl 54.5% (+8.3%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 62.0%
Defensive zone
Toews 57.6%
Neutral zone
Hertl 56.7%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 57.8%
42.2%
57.8%
Toews
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
7
(13 meetings)
6
7
Toews
Hertl
Last 10: Toews 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
4
4
Toews
Hertl
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Toews
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
2
1
Toews
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
61.1% (650)
54.1% (1,117)
+7.0%
Power Play
71.9% (192)
59.8% (296)
+12.1%
Penalty Kill
59.6% (99)
34.4% (32)
+25.2%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +25.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Toews is 60.7% vs left-shot opponents (557).
Toews shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Toews
Hertl
Home
64.8% (560)
54.3% (709)
Away
60.6% (381)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Toews
Hertl
P1
62.3%
51.6%
P2
63.9%
53.6%
P3
62.8%
58.6%
OT
70.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
60.9%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
63.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2023 | 2 | 14:46 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 2 | 11:48 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 2 | 11:38 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 2 | 07:01 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 2 | 03:56 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 2 | 00:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 1 | 18:31 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 1 | 15:15 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 1 | 15:07 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 09:49 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 14:04 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 13:58 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 11:39 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |