Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (69% H2H, 42 meetings). Toews wins 56.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 57.9% vs Hertl 54.2% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Toews leads 64-33 in 97 meetings
Offensive zone
Toews 85.4%
Defensive zone
Toews 77.7%
Neutral zone
Toews 83.2%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 82.6%
82.6%
17.4%
Toews
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
64
-
33
(97 meetings)
64
33
Toews
Hertl
Last 10: Toews 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
29
13
Toews
Hertl
42 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
20
8
Toews
Hertl
28 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
15
12
Toews
Hertl
27 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
57.2% (13,047)
53.8% (8,268)
+3.4%
Power Play
63.3% (3,252)
59.3% (1,975)
+4.0%
Penalty Kill
53.6% (1,810)
46.3% (806)
+7.3%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Toews is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (11,653).
Toews shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Toews
Hertl
Home
59.7% (9,192)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
56.1% (8,948)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Toews
Hertl
P1
58.6%
53.6%
P2
57.8%
54.1%
P3
57.3%
55.3%
OT
58.9%
46.5%
Final 5 min
58.2%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
57.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 18:39 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 10:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 12:38 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 2 | 14:46 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 2 | 11:48 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 2 | 11:38 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 2 | 07:01 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 2 | 03:56 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 2 | 00:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 1 | 18:31 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 1 | 15:15 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 1 | 15:07 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 09:49 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 14:04 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 13:58 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 11:39 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 3 | 06:58 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |