Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tkachuk wins 53.7% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 51.0% vs Staal 54.2% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 79.1%
Defensive zone
Staal 94.8%
Neutral zone
Staal 75.0%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 65.8%
34.2%
65.8%
Tkachuk
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Tkachuk
Staal
Last 9: Tkachuk 7-2 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
3
0
Tkachuk
Staal
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Tkachuk
Staal
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
2
0
Tkachuk
Staal
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (194)
57.0% (1,017)
-6.0%
Power Play
51.7% (151)
57.7% (26)
-6.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
45.1% (286)
+4.9%
On even strength, Staal has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Tkachuk is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (218).
Tkachuk shoots left. Staal is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (988).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Staal
Home
50.0% (140)
54.3% (667)
Away
52.2% (207)
54.7% (662)
By Period
Tkachuk
Staal
P1
54.3%
56.2%
P2
50.0%
57.0%
P3
49.5%
49.7%
OT
33.3%
68.4%
Final 5 min
51.1%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▬
57.0%
51.3%
Staal
42.0%▼
54.0%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2024 | 2 | 06:30 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 13, 2024 | 1 | 14:17 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 11:26 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 11:04 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 01:04 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 1 | 15:17 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 1 | 09:06 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 1 | 07:17 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 1 | 03:25 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |