Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.9% vs 54.7%). Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Staal wins 65.3% vs right-shot opponents — Stenlund shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs Stenlund 54.3% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 74.8%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 68.9%
Neutral zone
Staal 54.1%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 64.1%
64.1%
35.9%
Staal
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Staal
Stenlund
Last 6: Staal 4-2 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
4
0
Staal
Stenlund
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
1
Staal
Stenlund
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
1
Staal
Stenlund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (955)
56.1% (615)
+0.0%
Power Play
66.9% (142)
53.2% (47)
+13.7%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (242)
52.1% (307)
-9.1%
On power play, Staal has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Staal is 65.3% vs right-shot opponents (401).
Staal shoots left. Stenlund is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (649).
Home / Away
Staal
Stenlund
Home
55.4% (663)
57.0% (458)
Away
54.4% (676)
52.6% (511)
By Period
Staal
Stenlund
P1
55.1%
55.1%
P2
54.7%
53.3%
P3
53.9%
56.4%
OT
70.0%
42.1%
Final 5 min
57.2%
57.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.9%
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 18:01 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 15:19 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 14:42 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 13:50 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 07:57 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:11 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |