Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Staal wins 58.1% vs right-shot opponents — Stenlund shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.2% vs Stenlund 58.3% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stenlund 53.1%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 64.7%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 56.9%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 59.3%
40.7%
59.3%
Staal
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Staal
Stenlund
Last 5: Staal 3-2 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
0
Staal
Stenlund
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
2
Staal
Stenlund
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
2
0
Staal
Stenlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,017)
58.6% (797)
-1.6%
Power Play
57.7% (26)
62.5% (24)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
45.1% (286)
60.5% (233)
-15.4%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Staal is 58.1% vs right-shot opponents (341).
Staal shoots left. Stenlund is 61.8% vs left-shot opponents (845).
Home / Away
Staal
Stenlund
Home
54.3% (667)
58.6% (548)
Away
54.7% (662)
59.7% (506)
By Period
Staal
Stenlund
P1
56.2%
60.2%
P2
57.0%
59.1%
P3
49.7%
58.3%
OT
68.4%
58.6%
Final 5 min
48.8%
58.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.5%
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
59.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 16:11 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 3 | 17:07 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 2 | 10:44 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 1 | 18:05 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 1 | 17:55 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |