Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +10.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs Carlsson 45.0% (+10.5%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 82.6%
Defensive zone
Staal 92.9%
Neutral zone
Staal 82.7%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 84.7%
84.7%
15.3%
Staal
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
2
(10 meetings)
8
2
Staal
Carlsson
Last 10: Staal 8-2 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Staal
Carlsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
2
0
Staal
Carlsson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
5
1
Staal
Carlsson
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (955)
45.5% (661)
+10.6%
Power Play
66.9% (142)
46.3% (82)
+20.6%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (242)
33.3% (84)
+9.7%
On power play, Staal has a +20.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Staal shoots left. Carlsson is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (540).
Home / Away
Staal
Carlsson
Home
55.4% (663)
42.5% (428)
Away
54.4% (676)
46.4% (399)
By Period
Staal
Carlsson
P1
55.1%
45.4%
P2
54.7%
39.7%
P3
53.9%
48.5%
OT
70.0%
41.7%
Final 5 min
57.2%
39.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.9%
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 11:07 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 13:18 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 07:24 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 03:13 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 02:58 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:57 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:10 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 07:06 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 07:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |