Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Staal wins 65.3% vs right-shot opponents — Geekie shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs Geekie 47.6% (+8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Geekie 59.1%
Defensive zone
Staal 86.4%
Neutral zone
Staal 59.2%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 77.3%
77.3%
22.7%
Staal
Geekie
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Staal
Geekie
Last 5: Staal 3-2 Geekie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Geekie
0
1
Staal
Geekie
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
3
1
Staal
Geekie
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Geekie
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (955)
47.0% (117)
+9.1%
Power Play
66.9% (142)
47.1% (34)
+19.8%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (242)
0.0% (3)
+43.0%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +43.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Geekie shoots right. Staal is 65.3% vs right-shot opponents (401).
Staal shoots left. Geekie is 42.1% vs left-shot opponents (95).
Home / Away
Staal
Geekie
Home
55.4% (663)
45.3% (75)
Away
54.4% (676)
46.8% (79)
By Period
Staal
Geekie
P1
55.1%
43.1%
P2
54.7%
48.1%
P3
53.9%
47.5%
OT
70.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.2%
37.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.9%
Geekie
46.0%▼
47.5%
46.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 09:00 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 06:47 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 10:28 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 02:11 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 19:10 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |