Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs Zacha 51.7% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 54.9%
Defensive zone
Zacha 55.6%
Neutral zone
Zacha 56.9%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 55.8%
44.2%
55.8%
Staal
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Staal
Zacha
Last 9: Staal 4-5 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
3
Staal
Zacha
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
2
1
Staal
Zacha
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
2
1
Staal
Zacha
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (955)
53.3% (646)
+2.8%
Power Play
66.9% (142)
53.0% (100)
+13.9%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (242)
38.9% (72)
+4.1%
On power play, Staal has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Staal shoots left. Zacha is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (476).
Home / Away
Staal
Zacha
Home
55.4% (663)
51.7% (410)
Away
54.4% (676)
52.2% (408)
By Period
Staal
Zacha
P1
55.1%
57.7%
P2
54.7%
48.9%
P3
53.9%
50.2%
OT
70.0%
35.7%
Final 5 min
57.2%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.9%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 18:08 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 14:39 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 18:13 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 13:34 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 17:34 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 17:27 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 14:18 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 07:09 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 01:43 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |