Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Staal wins 57.4% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 57.6% vs Zacha 54.4% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 82.3%
Defensive zone
Staal 64.0%
Neutral zone
Zacha 60.4%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 59.1%
40.9%
59.1%
Staal
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Staal
Zacha
Last 8: Staal 3-5 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
4
Staal
Zacha
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
3
1
Staal
Zacha
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
58.9% (1,096)
53.9% (787)
+5.0%
Power Play
68.4% (57)
63.2% (193)
+5.2%
Penalty Kill
51.8% (222)
44.3% (88)
+7.5%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Staal is 57.4% vs left-shot opponents (986).
Staal shoots left. Zacha is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Home / Away
Staal
Zacha
Home
57.0% (646)
56.7% (538)
Away
59.1% (729)
52.8% (530)
By Period
Staal
Zacha
P1
55.9%
52.6%
P2
55.4%
54.8%
P3
62.0%
56.8%
OT
70.4%
59.1%
Final 5 min
63.1%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
58.1%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 13:12 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 12:05 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 3 | 12:48 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 2 | 07:30 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 2 | 00:34 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 1 | 12:22 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 3 | 04:08 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 2 | 15:35 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |