Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on offensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 22 meetings). Staal wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Zacha 49.1% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Zacha leads 32-29 in 61 meetings
Offensive zone
Zacha 73.1%
Defensive zone
Zacha 51.9%
Neutral zone
Zacha 66.3%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 63.8%
36.2%
63.8%
Staal
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
29
-
32
(61 meetings)
29
32
Staal
Zacha
Last 10: Staal 4-6 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
6
16
Staal
Zacha
22 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
14
7
Staal
Zacha
21 total
Neutral Zone
Even
9
9
Staal
Zacha
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,620)
48.9% (5,102)
+7.0%
Power Play
62.7% (1,745)
55.6% (804)
+7.1%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (2,896)
42.2% (555)
+5.8%
On power play, Staal has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,773).
Staal shoots left. Zacha is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,921).
Home / Away
Staal
Zacha
Home
56.4% (9,663)
49.7% (3,353)
Away
54.3% (9,663)
48.5% (3,108)
By Period
Staal
Zacha
P1
55.2%
49.9%
P2
55.9%
49.2%
P3
54.9%
48.1%
OT
56.2%
53.1%
Final 5 min
56.1%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 18:08 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 14:39 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 18:13 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 13:34 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 17:34 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 17:27 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 14:18 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 07:09 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 01:43 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 3 | 19:41 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 3 | 11:03 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 3 | 01:14 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 16:01 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 02:38 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 1 | 00:30 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 13:12 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 12:05 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 3 | 12:48 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 2 | 07:30 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 2 | 00:34 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |