Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +9.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Donato on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Staal wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.2% vs Donato 45.4% (+9.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Donato 86.1%
Defensive zone
Staal 58.2%
Neutral zone
Donato 63.4%
Result
Ryan Donato favored at 66.5%
33.5%
66.5%
Staal
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Staal
Donato
Last 8: Staal 3-5 Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Donato
0
3
Staal
Donato
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Staal
Donato
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
2
1
Staal
Donato
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,017)
43.5% (400)
+13.5%
Power Play
57.7% (26)
48.7% (119)
+9.0%
Penalty Kill
45.1% (286)
33.3% (6)
+11.8%
On even strength, Staal has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Staal is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (988).
Staal shoots left. Donato is 44.7% vs left-shot opponents (333).
Home / Away
Staal
Donato
Home
54.3% (667)
50.2% (279)
Away
54.7% (662)
38.2% (246)
By Period
Staal
Donato
P1
56.2%
44.6%
P2
57.0%
46.6%
P3
49.7%
42.0%
OT
68.4%
60.0%
Final 5 min
48.8%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.5%
Donato
46.0%▼
48.5%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3 | 19:50 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 13:37 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 1 | 15:15 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 10:21 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 10:17 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 06:25 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 1 | 13:25 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 1 | 02:58 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |