Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Staal wins 57.4% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 57.6% vs Monahan 54.5% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 74.8%
Defensive zone
Staal 54.5%
Neutral zone
Monahan 60.1%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 61.4%
38.6%
61.4%
Staal
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
8
(11 meetings)
3
8
Staal
Monahan
Last 10: Staal 3-7 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
3
Staal
Monahan
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Staal
Monahan
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
2
4
Staal
Monahan
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
58.9% (1,096)
57.1% (871)
+1.8%
Power Play
68.4% (57)
53.1% (262)
+15.3%
Penalty Kill
51.8% (222)
44.6% (139)
+7.2%
On power play, Staal has a +15.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Staal is 57.4% vs left-shot opponents (986).
Staal shoots left. Monahan is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (753).
Home / Away
Staal
Monahan
Home
57.0% (646)
55.3% (644)
Away
59.1% (729)
54.5% (628)
By Period
Staal
Monahan
P1
55.9%
53.9%
P2
55.4%
55.3%
P3
62.0%
54.4%
OT
70.4%
76.5%
Final 5 min
63.1%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
58.1%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 01:15 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 28, 2023 | 3 | 18:41 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 28, 2023 | 3 | 06:40 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 28, 2023 | 3 | 04:19 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 28, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 28, 2023 | 1 | 19:25 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 28, 2023 | 1 | 15:50 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 28, 2023 | 1 | 13:51 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 28, 2023 | 1 | 10:52 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 28, 2023 | 1 | 06:12 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 28, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |