Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bailey wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 50.0% vs Eller 51.7% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bailey 67.0%
Defensive zone
Eller 79.8%
Neutral zone
Eller 58.6%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 60.4%
39.6%
60.4%
Bailey
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Bailey
Eller
Last 7: Bailey 4-3 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bailey
Eller
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
1
2
Bailey
Eller
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bailey
2
0
Bailey
Eller
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (189)
52.8% (769)
-2.0%
Power Play
52.8% (53)
54.7% (75)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
46.8% (188)
-18.2%
On penalty kill, Eller has a +18.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Bailey is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (139).
Bailey shoots left. Eller is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Bailey
Eller
Home
55.2% (145)
51.3% (513)
Away
43.2% (111)
52.5% (520)
By Period
Bailey
Eller
P1
42.4%
50.3%
P2
52.2%
52.8%
P3
56.9%
51.4%
OT
50.0%
87.5%
Final 5 min
45.2%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
50.0%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2020 | 3 | 15:54 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 10, 2020 | 3 | 01:37 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 1 | 13:34 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 3 | 09:03 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 3 | 02:18 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 1 | 06:05 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 1 | 04:43 | Defensive | Lars Eller |