Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Bailey wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 44.3% vs Eller 49.5% (-10.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bailey 85.3%
Defensive zone
Eller 64.5%
Neutral zone
Bailey 63.4%
Result
Josh Bailey favored at 60.4%
60.4%
39.6%
Bailey
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Bailey
Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Eller
0
1
Bailey
Eller
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
0
1
Bailey
Eller
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
39.8% (83)
51.1% (786)
-11.3%
Power Play
27.3% (22)
45.0% (80)
-17.7%
Penalty Kill
80.0% (5)
43.6% (165)
+36.4%
On penalty kill, Bailey has a +36.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Bailey is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (60).
Bailey shoots left. Eller is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (677).
Home / Away
Bailey
Eller
Home
33.3% (48)
51.2% (510)
Away
43.5% (62)
47.8% (521)
By Period
Bailey
Eller
P1
33.3%
50.7%
P2
47.2%
49.0%
P3
39.4%
48.3%
OT
0.0%
56.3%
Final 5 min
38.1%
45.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
39.1%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 03:03 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 15:17 | Defensive | Lars Eller |